MLB offseason is a good time to reflect on if teams can go first to worst in the MLB. I know it’s a lot easier to do in the NFL but the MLB season is almost here so let’s look at that first. I took the worst team in each division from one year and checked out how they did in the following one. I went all the way back to 1998 and have about 21 season of data. Below I’ve noted my conclusions.
Out of the 126 teams 91 teams improved their overall records 28 teams somehow got worse and 7 teams had the exact same record. The average was an increase of 7.00793 games won, the median number was 6 and the mode as also 6. The top 5 increases in games won would be +35 (1999 Arizona Diamondbacks), +31 (2008 Tampa Bay Rays), +29 (2004 Detroit Tigers), +29 (2011 Arizona Diamondbacks), + 28 (2013 Red Sox). The top (or bottom) negative performing teams were -28 (2018 Orioles), -12 (2003 Tigers), -10 (2006 Nationals), -10 (2015 Phillies), -9 (2003 Mets).
Another interesting data point would be to look to see if teams generally moved up the standings. I looked at similar items as the above. 70 teams improved their position in the standings and 56 teams stayed the same. The average move was about 1.11904, the median was 1 and mode was 0. The top seasons were all first to worst situations (we did it boyz, we said the title). The 6 teams were 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2011 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2013 Red Sox, 2016 Red Sox, and the 2015 Rangers.
While winning more games is important and going first to worst is nice the real prize is just making the playoffs when the year before the team was bottom of the barrel. The 11 teams I found that made the playoffs are below.
1. 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks (100-62, +35 games from the year before, lost in the Division Series (3-1) to the Mets)
2. 2007 Chicago Cubs (85-77, +19 games from the year before, lost NL Division Series (3-0) to the Diamondbacks)
3. 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72, +14 games from the year before, lost NL Championship Series (4-0) to the Rockies)
4. 2008 Tampa Bay Rays (97-65, +31 games from the year before, lost World Series (4-1) to the Phillies)
5. 2011 Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68, +29 games from the year before, lost NL Division Series (3-2) to the Brewers)
6. 2012 Baltimore Orioles (93-69, +24 games from the year before, lost AL Division Series (3-2) to the Yankees)
7. 2013 Boston Red Sox (97-65, +28 games from the year before, won World Series (4-2) over the Cardinals)
8. 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70, +21 games from the year before, lost NL Division Series (3-2) to the Mets)
9. 2016 Boston Red Sox (93-69, +15 games from the year before, lost AL Division Series (3-0) to the Indians)
10. 2017 Minnesota Twins (85-77, +26 games from the year before, lost AL Wild Card Game (1-0) to the Yankees)
11. 2018 Oakland Athletics (97-65, +22 games from the year before, lost AL Wild Card Game (1-0) to the Yankees )
The last thing I wanted to write about in this small excavation of numbers is some interesting tidbits that don’t really fit into a larger category.
the worst decline was -28 games by the 2018 Baltimore Orioles which was 16 games worse then the next highest decline (2003 Detroit Tigers).
the highest gain without making the playoffs was 29 games by the 2004 Detroit Tigers who finished 72-90 after going 43-119 the year before. This is the tied for the 3rd biggest gain during the time analyzed.
Every NL West the team in last placed improved their record during the 21 seasons I looked into.
The NL Central basement team improved their record 10 times, regressed 9 times and stayed the same 2 times.
There were 4 times during the analysis that every team who finished last the year before had improved the following year. There were also 5 separate years where every team except one improved and the team that regressed only went down by about 1-3 games.
There are some limitations to this small study that I want to talk about before we finish up. The first is the small sample size. I used 21 years because the divisions were all relatively similar except for the NL central and the AL west which had 6 and 4 teams before the even 15/15 split. The years before had only 4 divisions so that was going to be difficult to work into the analysis. I also felt like 98’ through today captures only about 2 eras of baseball so it ins’t too much of a stretch comparing results. I also could have examined bad teams to see how they did rather than just last place teams to really get at the meat of what I wanted to find out (i.e. if bad teams can be good the year after). I’m sure there were other things but I don’t know what they are now.
In conclusion from this really raw crunching of numbers it seems like teams generally get better in the contemporary age of baseball. Maybe not always playoff caliber good but it’s possible to win a World Series when you finished in last place the year before. This should be helpful information for when I make my preseason predictions in 2020. I also want to take a deeper look at the teams that improved and made the playoffs from the 1998 onward to see if my pet teams (White Sox & Reds) have a good shot at making the playoffs this year.