So I realize with my grading and others grading in the first round of drafts we have too many players that arn’t labeled as busts. From the limited research I’ve done with the late 90s and early 2000s drafts in addition to other secondary sources linked at the bottom of the article it seems liked about 50% of drafts picks in the first round bust. So as a fun little thought experiment I’m going to label 16 picks are starters and 16 as busts. This was originally a twitter only exclusive but I’d like to keep this as a more formal record. Check it.
1. Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars, QB) Starter
2. Zach Wilson (New York Jets, QB) Starter
3. Trey Lance (San Francisco 49ers, QB) Bust
4. Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons, TE) Starter
5. Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals, WR) Bust
6. Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins, WR) Starter
7. Penei Sewell (Detroit Lions, OT) Starter
8. Jaycee Horn (Carolina Panthers, CB) Starter
9. Patrick Surtain II (Denver Broncos, CB) Starter
10. DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles, WR) Starter
11. Justin Fields (Chicago Bears, QB) Bust
12. Micah Parsons (Dallas Cowboys, LB) Bust but if he converts to DE I'll switch this to starter
13. Rashawn Slater (Los Angeles Chargers, OT) Starter
14. Alijah Vera-Tucker (New York Jets, OG) Bust
15. Mac Jones (New England Patriots, QB) Bust
16. Zaven Collins (Arizona Cardinals, LB) Starter
17. Alex Leatherwood (Las Vegas Raiders, OT) Starter
18. Jaelan Phillips (Miami Dolphins, DE) Starter
19. Jamin Davis (Washington Football Team, LB) Bust
20. Kadarius Toney (New York Giants, WR) Starter
21. Kwity Paye (Indianapolis Colts, DE) Bust
22. Caleb Farley (Tennessee Titans, CB) Bust
23. Christian Darrisaw (Minnesota Vikings OT) Starter
24. Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers RB Bust
25. Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars, RB) Bust
26. Greg Newsome II (Cleveland Browns, CB) Starter
27. Rashod Bateman (Baltimore Ravens, WR) Bust
28. Payton Turner (New Orleans Saints, DE) Bust
29. Eric Stokes (Green Bay Packers, CB) Bust
30. Gregory Rousseau (Buffalo Bills, DE) Starter
31. Odafe Oweh (Baltimore Ravens, DE) Bust
32. Joe Tryon (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DE) Bust
https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/74206-what-are-an-nfl-first-round-picks-odds-for-success
https://www.dailynorseman.com/2017/4/12/15274148/most-nfl-draft-picks-are-busts
https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/